quantitative risk

NGFS series: Climate scenarios – A range of plausible outcomes

Andreas Spyrides
Understanding NGFS released data, exploration of scenarios and their impact, and leveraging on globally accepted solutions for the quantification of climate and environmental risks.

Our team at Grant Thornton has been studying climate-related matters, mainly concentrating on examining their direct and indirect impacts on the processes and frameworks of banks. This is the first part of the NGFS Series publications, focusing on climate scenarios.

This report outlines the analysis done by the NGFS in partnership with an expert group of climate scientists and economists to design a set of plausible scenarios (NGFS Phase II Climate Scenarios) reflecting a variation of climate futures.

The scenarios provide a common reference point for understanding how both climate change (physical risks) and climate policy and technology trends (transition risks) could evolve under different climate futures. Each scenario was chosen to show a range of combinations of physical and transition risk outcomes.

For the  NGFS Phase II models, an additional scenario variant is produced which includes interaction between transition and physical risks, so that the transition trajectory is reflecting the social cost of carbon under each scenario.

See our publication below for further details.