Introduction

To ensure the orderly functioning and integrity of financial markets and the overall stability of the EU financial system, the European Banking Authority (EBA) is tasked with monitoring market developments and identifying emerging risks and vulnerabilities at the micro-prudential level. 

A core tool supporting this mandate is the EU-wide stress test exercise, which the EBA is empowered to initiate and coordinate under its Regulation. Conducted in cooperation with the ESRB, ECB, and European Commission, the stress test evaluates the resilience of financial institutions against adverse economic scenarios and contributes to a broader assessment of systemic risk within the EU. 

The 2025 EU-wide stress test focuses on a severe macroeconomic downturn driven by a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions and global trade fragmentation, simulating significant GDP contraction, rising inflation, and disruptions in supply chains to assess banks’ capacity to absorb prolonged and compounded shocks. It also assumes high unemployment levels and sharp declines in asset prices, further amplifying stress across financial markets and the real economy.

 

Access the full publication: EBA 2025 EU - Wide Stress Test [ 2007 kb ]

 

Authors:

Andreas Spyrides, Quantitative Risk Services Leader

Maria Yiasouma, Manager, Quantitative Risk 

Ioanna Stavrou, Assistant Consultant, Quantitative Risk